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Will Winter of Soaring Energy Costs & Looming Recession Corrode Europe’s Unity in Propping Up Kiev?_我的网站

一 |     AI摘要      处暑虽过鹭岛仍闷热，今明两天受台风及季风影响有大雨到暴雨，气温回落体感转凉。    Prospects of a cold and bleak winter characterized by skyrocketing food and energy prices along with forecasts of a looming recession on the European continent have left officials fearful that the anti-Russia consensus could disintegrate, CNN reported.,As the cost of living crisis shows no signs of easing its relentless grip, multiple Western officials and diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, have indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky might find it increasingly hard to count on the attention of European leaders.,Moscow launched its special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine on February 24, responding to calls for help from the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk amid ceaseless attacks by the Kiev regime. The move triggered a swathe of sweeping sanctions against Moscow imposed by the US and its allies, including agreements targeting Russian energy.,Furthermore, the transatlantic alliance has been ramping up military support for Ukraine, pumping weapons to prop up the Kiev regime – something Moscow has repeatedly warned only serves to prolong the crisis.,The restrictive measures, however, have resulted in Western countries’ economies taking a beating, triggering sky-high inflation and driving energy prices to record numbers.,Opinion & Analysis'The Last Laugh': EU Sanctions on Russia Backfiring as Moscow Winning 'Energy War,' Analysts Say11 August, 18:52 GMT,‘Winter Fuel Crisis’,In the aftermath of the operation, following in the footsteps of Washington and London, the EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030. In April, Brussels announced its intention to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Accordingly, in Germany there is speculation about a possible energy collapse in the winter due to a halt in Russian gas supplies, with Economy Minister Robert Habeck urging citizens to reduce electricity consumption.,Germany’s capital Berlin has turned off the lights illuminating monuments in order to save electricity.,British households are bracing themselves for annual energy bills of up to £4,200 next January, more than three times the amount paid at the beginning of 2022. French shops are facing stiff fines unless they keep their doors shut while the air conditioning is on.,As Russia accounted for about 55% of Europe's total gas imports in 2021, the winter fuel crisis is uppermost in European officials and diplomats’ minds.,This is especially the case amid news that gas futures prices in Europe exceeded $3,000 per thousand cubic meters first time since March 8 at the opening of trading on August 22, according to data from the London-based ICE exchange.,As for oil, almost half of Russian exports of crude go to Europe, with the EU reportedly importing 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2021.,Accordingly, the costs of continuing to shower military, financial, and economic support upon Kiev authorities are starting to hit home with increasing force, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the think tank Chatham House told CNN.,Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says19 August, 08:42 GMT,That is why, in his virtual address to the G7 Summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked to "intensify sanctions" on Russia so the crisis ends before winter.,"That may well be why Zelensky said he wanted the war over before Christmas, because the real issues will be getting the West to stick to its promises in the long run," Giles said.,EU countries reached a deal to reduce domestic gas demand in their respective nations by 15% by March 2023. The baseline agreement suggests voluntary measures to reduce gas consumption, but also contains a trigger mechanism that will be activated if the voluntary measures do not yield the desired results and do not help save enough fuel.,Referring to the deal, opposed at the time by Hungary as "unenforceable," "unjustifiable," and outright "harmful," a senior European diplomat was cited as saying:,"Within the European Union, it will be very difficult and we must try to stick to our promise to cut off Russia when it comes to any profits from gas and other sources.",The deal has been criticized for being voluntary, with some officials reportedly fearing that when things reach a critical point, not all EU countries will be prepared to accept the self-inflicted woes.,Donbass. Genocide. 2014-2022Which Western Countries Armed Ukraine19 August, 08:06 GMT,‘No Clear End Point’,The Western strategy of pumping the Kiev regime with arms is also reportedly being increasingly questioned by officials. They are starting to see it as a short-term solution offering no clear end point, the report stated.,"At the start... It was politically quite easy to rally behind Ukraine and make the case for donating weapons and cash," a NATO source was cited as saying.,Germany shed decades of "pacifist" policies since the Second World War and boosted its own defense spending while also sending weapons to Ukraine. Following criticism of “dithering” and holding back arms, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in June his country would send heavy weapons, such as the IRIS-T anti-aircraft systems. Subsequently announced plans on the federal government website mentioned 20 rocket launchers with a caliber of 70mm, as well as 2,000 rockets.,France, when promising to deliver Caesar howitzers, Milan anti-tank missiles, and thousands of shells to Kiev, underscored it was “always with the red line that we will not become parties to the conflict.”,Russia's Special Operation in Ukraine‘They’ve Bankrupted Themselves’: Europe Gutted Own Security to Funnel Kiev Weapons, Expert Says18 August, 23:53 GMT,The UK pledged scores of artillery guns, hundreds of drones, and hundreds more anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. But European countries have been reducing their military commitments for Ukraine since April, Politico reported, citing the Ukraine Support Tracker of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.,“Despite the war entering a critical phase, new aid initiatives have dried up,” the head of the team in charge of the Ukraine Support Tracker, Christoph Trebesch, was cited as saying.,According to the Tracker, Germany, France, and Italy have not made any significant new pledges to Kiev.,Furthermore, financial assistance to Ukraine from Western countries "dried up" in July, with Kiev receiving only 1.5 billion euros ($1.512 billion) last month. This coincided with Ukraine's Bureau of Economic Security admitting in early July that it had identified cases of the sale of humanitarian aid and military goods supplied by Western countries to Ukraine.,"Over time, the types of weapons we are sending have got more complicated, as has the training required to use them effectively. The good news is, these arms are helping the Ukrainians hold out. The bad news is, the longer the war goes on, the shorter on supply these weapons will be, making them harder to give up," an official told CNN.,"War fatigue" has also been cited by NATO officials.,"Back in February, it was easy to jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon. Now the war is in the boring strategic stage. There are fewer daily gains and losses and there are fewer photo opportunities," a NATO diplomat stated.,Officials weighed in on how corrosion could fray the anti-Russia coalition, doubting that countries might simply withdraw their support. However, the "parameters" of what outcome they support may ostensibly be reviewed.,Notably, some Western European countries such as Germany and France have publicly underscored the need for dialogue between the West and Moscow.,"Do we all still have the same view of the end game? Is it just getting back to the borders of before Russia invaded? Or is it back to pre-2014, before Russia annexed Crimea? And will we deal with Putin after the war or will he need to stand down. These are the long-term questions we need to be asking, but are not. It's better not to ask these questions right now," a European diplomat was cited as saying.,With the cost of living crunch forcing people across the continent to choose between heating their homes and eating, it will become more difficult for political leaders to justify spending funds and energy supporting a country they do not share a frontier with. Particularly as more and more countries do not perceive Moscow as the sole cause of such an existential crisis, the report stated.,There are believed to be fears among multiple Western officials that at some point, political leaders might opt to broker a peace deal and "undercut" the end game that Kiev has been seeking.,"There is growing concern in some quarters that if Ukraine appears to be losing ground to Russia this may accelerate calls for a negotiated settlement," Theresa Fallon, director at the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, told CNN, adding that once people sense that Kiev is on the losing side, “they may start to ask why do we continue to supply costly weapons to Ukraine at a time of economic stress.”,Ahead of political challenges, such as an election in Italy on September 25, the arrival of a new prime minister in the UK, and November midterm elections in the US, domestic policies may ultimately begin to dominate the agenda, according to European officials.。海上三台共舞，“简拉维”预计今日减弱消散，“紫檀”路径复杂，“沙德尔”后期路径不确定。              昨天我市天气闷热，有雷阵雨。（厦门日报拍客 LMZ 摄）     昨天是二十四节气中的处暑。“处”含有躲藏、终止的意思，从字面上看，这个节气过后，炎热的暑天就要渐渐结束了。昨天也是三伏天的最后一天，今天就要出伏了。但昨天鹭岛依然闷热，雷阵雨也无法彻底驱走暑热。气象部门预测，台风“简拉维”和季风辐合带继续“送水”，今明两天我市有强降水，且强对流易发，气温回落。    预计，今明两天雨势更猛，全市有大雨到暴雨，过程累计雨量达到80毫米～120毫米，局部超过200毫米。降水时局地伴有雷电、短时大风等强对流天气。气温回落，明天城区最高气温仅剩28℃，夜晨最低气温在25℃左右，体感明显转凉，不过真正的秋凉尚未到来。    海上台风“三台共舞”，路径扑朔迷离。第19号台风“紫檀”未来路径极为复杂，不排除多次登陆的可能。第20号台风“简拉维”预计今天在台湾海峡减弱消散。更远处的第18号台风“沙德尔”预计8月25日前对我国近海海域无影响，后期路径存在较大不确定性。（厦门日报记者 朱道衡 通讯员 崔梦雪）     提醒     注意防范暑热潮湿     处暑节气对闽南农民非常重要，闽南民谚有“处暑不觉热，水果免想结”，“处暑有下雨，中稻粒粒米”的说法。    气象专家提醒，处暑前后，天气还未出现真正意义上的秋凉，此时晴天下午的炎热亦不亚于暑夏之季，空气中仍夹杂着暑湿之邪，所以仍要注意防范暑热、潮湿。处暑后太阳的紫外线辐射指数较大，市民不要忽视防晒。(厦门日报记者 朱道衡 通讯员 林敏丹)。

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